Forecasting Wildfires in a Changing Climate

Meteosim presented a poster in the last EGU assembly (April 2017)

The poster explains several complementary methodologies implemented by Meteosim in order to estimate fire danger in a generalized fuel type computation, using the Canadian Forest Fire Weather Index (FWI) over Europe.

This work has been performed for several timescales:

a) For short term forecast from a few hours to 2 days ahead using GLAMEPS ensemble data (8 km)

b) For medium-range up to 10 days ahead by using ECMWF ensemble system data (16 km)

c) For future climate projections, addressing three different periods (2011-2040, 2041-2070 and 2071-2100) using CMIP5 models data for scenarios RCP4.5 and RCP 8.5.

All these activities are performed within the I-REACT project, co-funded by the European Union under the H2020 programme.

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